
ScenarioWizard 4.1 1
Contents
1 Preface .......................................................................................................................................5
2 Introduction to CIB .....................................................................................................................7
2.1 Purpose of the CIB method ................................................................................................7
2.2 The CIB approach ...............................................................................................................8
2.3 The CIB algorithm ...............................................................................................................8
2.3.1 Structure of a cross-impact matrix .................................................................................9
2.3.2 Recognizing the inconsistencies of a scenario ............................................................... 11
2.3.3 Consistent scenarios .................................................................................................... 13
3 Installation ............................................................................................................................... 15
4 Getting started with ScenarioWizard ........................................................................................ 17
4.1 Overview .......................................................................................................................... 17
4.2 A simple analysis - step by step ........................................................................................ 18
5 Generating and handling a project file ...................................................................................... 23
5.1 Overview .......................................................................................................................... 23
5.2 Loading and storing a project file ..................................................................................... 23
5.3 Generating an analysis structure ...................................................................................... 24
5.4 Entering descriptor comments ......................................................................................... 26
5.5 Assigning colors to the descriptor variants ....................................................................... 27
5.6 Editing an analysis structure ............................................................................................. 28
5.7 Displaying and editing cross-impact data using the matrix editor
..................................... 30
5.8 Entering cross-impact comments in the matrix editor ...................................................... 33
5.9 Entering and editing cross-impact data using the section editor ....................................... 35
5.10 Standardization ................................................................................................................ 39
5.11 Factor multiplication ........................................................................................................ 39
5.12 Transpose ........................................................................................................................ 40
5.13 Generating a random matrix ............................................................................................ 41
5.14 Exporting a cross-impact matrix ....................................................................................... 42
5.15 Importing a cross-impact matrix ....................................................................................... 43
5.16 Importing dzl and cim data ............................................................................................... 43
5.17 Displaying project information ......................................................................................... 44
6 Evaluating a cross-impact matrix .............................................................................................. 45
6.1 Calculating a system-grid .................................................................................................. 45
6.2 Analysing the impact balances of a scenario ..................................................................... 47
6.3 Generating an automatic scenario report ......................................................................... 52
6.4 Computing consistent scenarios ....................................................................................... 56
6.5 Generating a scenario tableau .......................................................................................... 63
6.6 Forcing and filtering descriptor variants ........................................................................... 65
6.7 Ensemble evaluations ...................................................................................................... 67
6.8 Statistics ........................................................................................................................... 73
6.9 Correlations ..................................................................................................................... 75
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