SCW The Econ D1 Manual de usuario descargar pdf (Pagina 11)

ScenarioWizard 4.1 8

2.2 The CIB approach

The CIB method is a proven cross-impact method which aims for a qualitative systems analysis of

multidisciplinary topics (e.g. scenario construction). CIB consists of a thoroughly tested combination

of expert discourse and analysis algorithm. The basic structure of a CIB analysis contains the follow-

ing steps:

i. An expert panel is assembled which covers the full spectrum of knowledge that is necessary

to understand all relevant topics. The panel should also reflect expert dissent if relevant.

ii. The expert panel prepares a list of the most important system factors ("descriptors") and

compiles all available information on the expected future evolution of the descriptors. A list

of possible disturbing influences which may deflect the evolution is also prepared.

iii. The expert panel discusses the interdependencies between the descriptors in one or (usually)

more workshops. The experts pass "cross-impact judgements" on interdependencies using a

qualitative judgement scale (e.g. "strongly promoting influence" or "weakly restricting influ-

ence"). The set of all judgements defines an impact network.

iv. The consistent configurations of the impact network ("consistent scenarios") are calculated

by the CIB algorithm. They reflect the systemic balance of influences of the network including

all indirect effects and provide a set of plausible future system states.

v. The expert panel discusses the results of the evaluation and prepares recommendations for

the user of the analysis.

More information on the CIB approach offers

Guideline No. 1, which is available at the CIB homepage

www.cross-impact.de.

2.3 The CIB algorithm

The aim of the CIB analysis is the construction of internally consistent assumption bundles in the

context of scenario analysis. To this aim plausible configurations of the impact factor network con-

sisting of mutually supporting assumptions must be identified.

CIB uses a pair-interaction system approach. Starting point is the identification of a set of factors

("descriptors") which characterize the system in a sufficient way for the purpose of a qualitative sys-

tem understanding. The relations between these descriptors are described by a net of influences (Fig.

2-1).

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SCW The Econ D1 Manual de usuario Pagina 11