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ScenarioWizard 4.1 11

Cross-Impact Matrix

"Somewhereland"

A1 "Patriots party"

A2 "Prosperity party"

A3 "Social party"

B1 Cooperation

B2 Rivalry

B3 Conflict

C1 Shrinking

C2 Stagnant

C3 Dynamic

D1 Balanced

D2 Strong contrasts

E1 Social peace

E2 Tensions

E3 Riots

F1 Meritocratic

F2 Solidarity

F3 Family

A. Government:

A1 "Patriots party" -2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 -2 1 1 0 0 0

A2 "Prosperity party" 2 1 -3 -2 -1 3 -2 2 0 0 0 2 -1 -1

A3 "Social party" 0 0 0 0 2 -2 3 -3 2 -1 -1 -2 2 0

B. Foreign policy:

B1 Cooperation 0 0 0 -2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

B2 Rivalry 0 0 0 0 1 -1 0 0 1 0 -1 0 0 0

B3 Conflict 3 -1 -2 3 0 -3 0 0 3 -1 -2 -2 1 1

C. Economy:

C1 Shrinking 2 1 -3 0 0 0 -2 2 -3 1 2 0 0 0

C2 Stagnant -1 2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

C3 Dynamic 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 2 3 -1 -2 0 0 0

D. Distribution of wealth:

D1 Balanced 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 -1 -2 -2 1 1

D2 Strong contrasts 0 -3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 1 2 2 -1 -1

E. Social cohesion:

E1 Social peace 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 3 0 0 2 -1 -1

E2 Tensions 0 0 0 -1 0 1 1 1 -2 0 0 -1 0 1

E3 Riots 2 -1 -1 -3 1 2 3 0 -3 0 0 -2 -1 3

F. Social values:

F1 Meritocratic 0 3 -3 0 0 0 -3 0 3 -3 3 -2 1 1

F2 Solidarity 1 -2 1 0 0 0 -1 2 -1 2 -2 2 -1 -1

F3 Family 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 2 -1 1 -1 2 -1 -1

Scenario assumptions:     



Balances 0 3 -3 2 1 -3 -9 -1 10 -7 7 4 -1 -3 2 -1 -1

Maximum:      

F.SoV

A.Gov

B.FoP

C.Eco

D.W

E.SCo

The impact score of a variant

The impact balance of a descriptor

Exercise: Fig. 2-2 The cross-impact judgements in are to be taken as an example. They express a pos-

sible view on the issue of societal development, but your opinion on some relationships might be

different for a real country. Prepare your own matrix which expresses your personal judgements.

2.3.2 Recognizing the inconsistencies of a scenario

The interdependencies shown in Fig. 2-2 constitute a net of impact relations expressed by the cross-

impact matrix. They limit the space of plausible scenarios for the system state because a configura-

tion chosen arbitrarily will in general contain contradictions to the "rules" of the system. Contradic-

tions are made visible by calculating the impact balances of a scenario. In Fig. 2-3 this is done for the

scenario S = [ A2 B1 C3 D1 E1 F1 ] (Government: "Prosperity party", foreign policy: cooperation,

economy: dynamic, distribution of wealth: balanced, social cohesion: social peace, social values:

meritocratic). Summing up the highlighted rows summarizes the influences impacting the descrip-

tors. The scores of the impact balances which correspond to the given scenario are marked by arrows

in the row "Scenario assumptions".

Fig. 2-3: The impact balance of a scenario.

1 2 ... 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 ... 109 110

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