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2 Introduction to CIB

This chapter offers a short introduction to the basic concepts of CIB. Readers experienced with CIB

may prefer to skip this chapter. Readers who are interested in a more in-depth study of the method

should consider using the homepage

www.cross-impact.de and the cited literature therein.

2.1 Purpose of the CIB method

The cross-impact balance analysis (CIB) is a method for analysing impact networks. The method uses

qualitative insights into the relations between the factors of an impact network in order to construct

consistent images of the network behaviour. The CIB method is based on

• a discipline independent, qualitatively oriented concept of analysis which promotes the ap-

plication of the method in interdisciplinary problems;

• an expert discourse approach which allows to collect, organize and to judge broad (as well as

dissenting) expert knowledge to complex, multidisciplinary topics in a structured way;

• a proven algorithm for the evaluation of the collected information and for conducting a

qualitative system analysis.

ZIRIUS supports the application of the CIB method by scientists, companies or administrations

through advice, cooperation, and various materials. Visit

CIB’s method homepage for more informa-

tion.

A typical application field of CIB is scenario analysis. The construction of scenarios frequently requires

the examination of developments in many different fields (e.g. economic, political, social or techno-

logical developments). Within different fields well established ideas about the possible developments

often exist (e.g. in the form of a favourable, middle and unfavourable forecast variant). However, the

development of holistic scenarios requires to identify which combinations of these variants are pro-

moted by the net of their interrelations. This systemic synthesis of isolated information to an overall

picture in the context of a scenario analysis can be carried out with the help of CIB.

CIB is a special form of cross-impact analysis. Several variants of cross-impact analysis have been

used for the analysis of multidisciplinary systems for more than 40 years. They provide a number of

structured processes for deducting plausible future developments in form of rough scenarios and are

based on expert judgements about systemic interactions. Cross-impact methods are mostly used for

analytical tasks which do not allow the use of theory-based computational models due to their disci-

plinary heterogeneity and the relevance of "soft" system knowledge, but on the other hand are too

complex for a purely argumentative systems analysis. CIB is a modern form of cross-impact analysis.

It is characterized by an easy-to-understand procedure, transparency, and high flexibility in applica-

tion and evaluation.

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SCW The Econ D1 Manual de usuario Pagina 10