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ScenarioWizard 4.1 9

This net can be partially or completely connected. The impact

relations may be one-sided or reciprocal. An arrow directed

from descriptor D1 to descriptor D2 indicates an impact on D2,

caused by D1. This means that ceteris paribus a change in the

state of D1 will induce a change in the state of D2. As a whole

the system will tend to a configuration in which the web of in-

fluences is balanced in an internally consistent way.

Fig. 2-1: A simple impact network

2.3.1 Structure of a cross-impact matrix

The construction of a CIB cross-impact matrix will be described with the help of a simple example.

The example describes a fictitious country "Somewhereland" with six interdependent factors in the

fields of politics, economy and society. The steps of the CIB process are as follows:

1) Compile a list of the most relevant system factors ("descriptors").

In our example literature research or expert interviews may lead to the following list of descriptors: A.

Government, B. Foreign policy, C. Economy D. Distribution of wealth, E. Social cohesion, and F. Social

values.

2) Define a set of qualitative alternatives (variants) which characterize the possible states of the de-

scriptors.

In the example we use:

-"Patriots party", "Prosperity party” and "Social party" as possible variants of the descriptor “Gov-

ernment”;

- “Cooperation”, “Rivalry” and “Conflict“ as possible variants of the descriptor “Foreign policy”;

- “Shrinking”, “Stagnant” and “Dynamic“ as possible variants of the descriptor “Economy”;

- “Balanced” and “Strong contrasts“ as possible variants of the descriptor “Distribution of wealth”;

- “Social peace”, “Tensions” and “Riots“ as possible variants of the descriptor “Social cohesion”;

- “Meritocratic”, “Solidarity” and “Family” as possible variants of the descriptor “Social values”.

3) Make a judgement about the impact of state x of descriptor X on state y of descriptor Y, based on

literature reviews, expert interviews, or other appropriate investigations. Express your judgement in

a qualitative scale as follows:

-3: strongly restricting influence

-2: moderately restricting influence

-1: weakly restricting influence

0: no influence

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SCW The Econ D1 Manual de usuario Pagina 12