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ScenarioWizard 4.1 17

4 Getting started with ScenarioWizard

4.1 Overview

A qualitative system analysis using ScenarioWizard is conducted by sampling qualitative judgements

about the mutual influences (the “cross-impacts”) of the principal elements of a system, and by con-

structing plausible and consistent qualitative scenarios concerning the system’s behaviour. The typi-

cal structure of a cross-impact analysis using ScenarioWizard is as follows:

 Generate a list of descriptors (relevant system elements) and their variants (possible states

or developments): the “analysis structure”.

 Enter the cross-impact data into this structure. The analysis structure and the cross-impact

data together form the cross-impact matrix (“cim”).

 Evaluate the cross-impact matrix by computing its solution set (consistent scenarios, weights,

...).

 If appropriate for the aims of the analysis, carry out additional evaluations (frequency statis-

tics, influence analysis, transient analysis).

 Store data and results.

The following chapters describe how to perform the various stages of the process. All necessary func-

tions can be accessed via the menu items and the buttons found in the different ScenarioWizard

windows. The basic functions are also available using the buttons of the toolbar (Fig. 4-1). All func-

tions may only be accessed if the necessary preparatory steps have been done. Otherwise the menu

items appear grey and their toolbar buttons are disabled. For instance clicking the button “Find con-

sistent scenarios“ on the toolbar is only effective if an analysis structure has been generated or

loaded, and if cross-impact data have been provided.

A help function is also available. It may be accessed via the menu item Info – Help or the F1 key.

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SCW The Econ D1 Manual de usuario Pagina 20